Male group size has been hypothesized to result from male mating competition, but the. I believe neither of these scenarios, but im hard put to come up with alternatives. A comparable effort has to be devoted to the science of analysis. Structuring and analyzing competing hypotheses with. Analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ach, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. The computer tool is to a large extent based on two established analytical methods, morphological anal ysis and analysis of competing hypotheses, and aims to. Remember to include assumptions, logical deductions. How does analysis of competing hypotheses ach improve intelligence analysis. An analysis of competing hypotheses for the tesco bank. As such, we compared four hypotheses for the purposes of this exercise. Heuer spent 45 years gaining experience in intelligence and security working for the central intelligence agency cia.
Malware samples might be accidentally or intentionally leaked, stolen. Heuer heuer1999 later developed a protocol called analysis of competing hypotheses ach in part to address analysts susceptibility to deception. Structured analysis of competing hypotheses theory and. Analysis of competing hypotheses premium essay help. Hypotheses with the most minuses should get the most consideration. Ach is designed to ameliorate these problems with intuitive intelligence analysis that arise from human psychology. Structured analysis of competing hypothesessachtakes achfurther and deeper, adding structure and automation that permit the analyst to go beyond fis first estimate and discover ot only what he does not know. Therefore, we can adapt the ach steps, as described below, to resolve goal con. This honours project builds off the information visualizations explored by robert jeffery pardoe. Ach is grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. Isbn 9789512525751 pdf issn 12364959 the analysis of competing hypotheses ach in the assessment of chemical warfare activities john d. Richards heuer is the author of psychology of intelligence analysis. Steps 4 and 5 are where the process is susceptible to bias. Resolving goal conflicts via argumentationbased analysis.
It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a free computer program used to evaluate multiple hypotheses. What i want to share with the digital analytics community is continue reading analysis of competing hypotheses for digital analytics. Make a list of all the information, key assumptions, and absence of evidence that are relevant to the issue. Heuer at the cia, but it is remarkably useful in business as well. The sach maximizes the possible hypotheses by allowing the analyst to split one hypothesis into two complex ones. A good strategy for solving the puzzle is to apply the analysis of competing hypotheses technique. Many of these, like brain storming, key assumptions checks, what if, red teams, or devils advocacy are widely used in many forms of analysis.
The analysis of competing hypotheses method, or ach, is one of the most important tools on the intelligence analysts bench. People often ask me how i went from working for the government to fashion. How does analysis of competing hypotheses ach pherson. It is widely used in intelligence and international politics, but milo and i think it applies equally well to business for strategic decision making. In particular, the analysis phase involves the management of hypotheses and the application of prior knowledge. Like the role of sleep in memory consolidation, the effect of caffeine on cognitive function, or. I cited, for example, the paper by valtorta, marco et al. Ach is a structured analytical technique designed to enable analysts to establish the consistency and inconsistency of all available data points with a selection of possible hypotheses. The analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a method to aid.
Intelligence analysis often tackles questions shrouded by deep uncertainty, such as those that deal with chemical and biological terrorism or nuclear weapon detection. You will also find instructions and tutorials for the ach software at the pherson associates, llc web site. At which stage of the analysis of competing hypotheses. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is an intelligence tool that was developed and used by the central intelligence agency cia where it functions as a scientific method to analyze evidence to attempt to disprove hypotheses 1.
This effort has to start with a clear understanding of the inherent strengths and weaknesses of the primary analytic mechanismthe human mindand the way it processes information. A tool for generating, structuring, and analyzing multiple hypotheses. I get a lot of requests to discuss further the application of intelligence analysis to business, so today ill discuss the uses and limitations of a common analytic technique one tool that i teach at ie is the analysis of competing hypotheses ach. No less than four full pages of written text explaining your use of analysis of competing hypotheses. To complete the ach steps of fusion and conclusion. A condensed version of this has been published as can we do better than ach. While malware may initially be developed and used by a single actor, this does not mean that it will permanently remain unique to that actor. Analysis by competing hypothesis linkedin slideshare. The penultimate section presents the analysis of an hypothetical crime problem using ach. It is designed to help analysts avoid confirmation bias in several respects, namely, by explicitly requiring them to a consider alternative hypotheses. The paper also argues that the achsl approach allows uncertainty of evidence, opinion about their in. In this section, we describe the four steps of hypothesis testing that were briefly introduced in section 8.
Fifty intelligence analysts were randomly assigned to use ach or not when. By clicking on or navigating this site, you accept our use of cookies in accordance with our cookie policy close this message. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is said to an unbiased methodology for. Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis. An analytic technique created at the cia, ach helps you analyze complex situations with multiple hypotheses and countless pieces of evidence. An introduction no continue reading analysis of competing hypotheses. Structured analysis of competing hypotheses theory and application chido on.
Stepbystep outline of analysis of competing hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses discover your solutions llc. My hypothesis is if ambush bug coloration determines where on a goldenrod flower they will be located then females should be found on top of the flower because they are yellow matches the flower the alternative hypothesis is that ambush bug coloration has no effect on where they are found on the flower. In response to this ambiguous situation, digital shadows has applied the technique of the analysis of competing hypothesis ach to the available data. As we have included ach in our geospatial analytic method, it takes the geospatial analyst through a process to make wellreasoned, analytical judgments using both nongeospatial and geospatial information. Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic. Milo and i organize a workshop on tuesday, may 29 on ach analysis of competing hypotheses. How to reduce analytical bias by applying analysis of. It is a procedure for determining which of a range of hypotheses is most. Based on the required readings, lecture materials, scenario, and video for week 6, you will turn in a word processing document with the following elements. Competing hypotheses ach approach, 7, 12 as a basis for reasoning about alternative hypotheses as part of the process of intelligence analysis an approach that is referred to as achsl. Stepbystep outline of analysis of competing hypotheses 1 identify the possible hypotheses to be considered. The structured analysis of competing hypotheses offers analysts an improvement over the limitations of the original ach. Hart series 1, no 34 the analysis of competing hypotheses ach in the assessment of chemical warfare activities national defence university department of strategic and defence studies.
In dealing with such questions, the task falls on intelligence analysts to assemble collected items of information and determine the consistency of the body of reporting with a set of conflicting hypotheses. Designed for strategic and tactical intelligence analysis national security, defence, trade, etc. The analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a method to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Manson department of anthropology, university of michigan, ann arbor primate social groups frequently contain multiple males. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach provides an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. Statistical hypotheses the alternative hypothesis is established by observing evidence data that contradicts the null hypothesis and supports the alternative hypothesis hypotheses are always about population parameters h o. For example, two tested hypotheses could be that iraq has wmd or iraq does not have wmd. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a multivariable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Use a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities.
Improving a tested intelligence methodology pdf, competitive. Multiple people can collaborate on a single problem, and ach will compare everyones analyses and pinpoint the precise areas of disagreement, allowing for a more focused debate. Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against all the hypotheses. Extending heuers analysis of competing hypotheses method. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis. Proceed by rejecting or eliminating hypotheses, while tentatively accepting only those that cannot be refuted. A sophisticated financiallymotivated cybercriminal actor h1. Analysis by competing hypotheses a business tool from the psychology of intelligence analysis by richards j. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. Saddam public statement of intent not to retaliate.
A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses article pdf available in policing 5. It is an analytic process that identifies a complete set of alternative hypotheses, systematically evaluates data that is consistent and inconsistent with each hypothesis, and rejects hypotheses that contain too much inconsistent data. The method of analysis of competing hypotheses ach consists of the following steps. Ach is an analytic tool originally developed by richards j. A nation state or stateaffiliated actor conducting a disruptive operation h3.
An unsophisticated financiallymotivated cybercriminal actor h2. How do you get on top of the literature associated with a controversial scientific topic. The software downloadable here takes an analyst through a process for making a wellreasoned, analytical judgment. The analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic achsl 2 was developed to address a range of intelligence analysis issues, including susceptibility to deception, and is an. Analysis of competing hypotheses for digital analytics. My group is supposed to come up with a couple competing hypotheses though and i. Ach is a process by which analysts make more objective conclusions from multiple hypotheses and countless pieces of evidence. Analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a simple model for how to think about and fuse geospatial information into analytic problems. A pdf of this type expresses the uncertain probability that a process will. For many empirical issues, the science gives a conflicted picture. At which stage of the analysis of competing hypotheses would a hypothesis like the boy ran for an hour at 20 miles per hour be eliminated. And to be honest i dont work in fashion i work in analytics for a fashion company.
The next section describes analysis of competing hypotheses ach, an intuitive, structured method of evaluating evidence for and against a range of hypotheses, designed to avoid three common cognitive biases in decisionmaking. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach 7 was developed to provide a. Summary the intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. The theory of analysis of competing hypotheses over the years, intelligence community practitioners have developed or adapted a range of simple or more complicated structured analytic techniques sats to aid in conducting intelligence analysis. Free computer program for analyzing multiple hypotheses.
Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a law enforcement process that can prevent cognitive biases and,since the matrix leaves a trail of evidence, it can be traced back easily to reevaluate if something goes wrong. Multiple competing hypotheses, predictive analysis and hypothesis management, novel intelligence. Post your analysis to the lesson 7 discussion forum. Analysis of competing hypotheses digital forensics.